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And while BofA's forecast may seem a little extreme, others expect even higher prices. David Tawil, president of Maglan Capital, told Fox Business last week that “incredible demand,” inflation, and shareholder pressure on oil supermajors to drastically cut emissions could lead to an oil crisis within three years, with very high oil and gasoline prices. Oil prices are set to rise “consistently and considerably now into the end of the year,” Tawil said. |
And while BofA's forecast may seem a little extreme, others expect even higher prices. David Tawil, president of Maglan Capital, told Fox Business last week that “incredible demand,” inflation, and shareholder pressure on oil supermajors to drastically cut emissions could lead to an oil crisis within three years, with very high oil and gasoline prices. Oil prices are set to rise “consistently and considerably now into the end of the year,” Tawil said. |
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Revision as of 05:30, 23 June 2021
overarching premise is wrong
Zerohedge has the overarching premise that money is wealth and that history repeats itself, which wrong. Money is only a claim to past, present and future energy production. We are flooded with 1kwh/sqr meter of energy from the sun and all we need is a cheap Heliostat Mirrors solar tracking device to make our own steel, bricks and food. You don't need land for food production, only energy. Black water is endlessly recycled, extracting the phosphate, growing duckweed , eaten by Tilapia fish, creating ammonia for plants .
- https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/2021-liquidity-supernova-not-just-fed-us-treasury-will-unleash-13-trillion-liquidity-next "...One of the most poignant (and painful to some) lessons of the past decade - especially to contrarian, bearish investors such as Odey and Horseman - is that the Fed can keep print money far longer than any short can remain solvent. And while it was considered in poor taste until earlier this year to admit that the market levitation is entirely due to the Fed's manipulation of markets- a task best left to fringe, tinfoil wearing blogs - all pretense disappeared after Jerome Powell nationalized the bond market in March, and just last week Morgan Stanley's chief rates strategist, Matthew Hornbach, admitted that central bank liquidity is the most critical component of rising macro markets: "It both greases the wheels of transactional finance and changes the opportunity set available to investors...."
Shorts will continue to get burned unless they reconsider their premise that money or letters of credit are actual wealth. Bitcoin has no backing by a sovereign nation state and is thus defined as a commodity and not a currency or "crypto" currency.
One has to navigate the rhetoric and unfalsifiable conspiracy theories to get some good articles. For example only Zerohedge warned us a head of time that Cyprus was about to implode its banking system and that the Chinese were rehypothecating the same pile of copper to different entities. The rhetorical tone they is annoying, some sort of AI filter would be nice to extract the underlying premises.
Comments are AI chat bots
- "....https://www.economist.com/node/21701119/comments I'm extremely happy with The Economist's timing of this cover topic and special report, mainly because just last week I discovered an online 'AI' software that made more than 1500 human-like clever comments to 100 or more articles for over a year unnoticed, I even got a confession from its programmers! If you're curious about this highly sophisticated 'AI' software called Don Dehart Bronkema, you can read its comments at: http://disqus.com/by/don_bronkema/ and mine at: http://disqus.com/by/yamancakiroglu/ Now the question is: in the future will we, as humans, accept an 'AI' software trying to fool us as if it were one of us, or not? ...."
Nytimes
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-06/exposed-real-author-nyt-anonymous-op-ed-gs-15-cia-analyst.
IMF: deep negative rates
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2019/04/29/Enabling-Deep-Negative-Rates-A-Guide-46598 The experience of the Great Recession and its aftermath revealed that a lower bound on interest rates can be a serious obstacle for fighting recessions. However, the zero lower bound is not a law of nature; it is a policy choice. The central message of this paper is that with readily available tools a central bank can enable deep negative rates whenever needed—thus maintaining the power of monetary policy in the future to end recessions within a short time
FED will bailout China
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-19/something-just-broke-china-repo-rate-soars-1000-overnight repo rate spiked to 1000% July 2019, forcing the FED to cut rates end of July or they risk collapsing the Yuan. Oil is unlimited , hence unlimited money printing by the US and EU is possible. Problem is that many are still stuck in the history of high oil prices, history never repeats itself as each generation has different circumstances. Because of the false premise that money is wealth, many have developed a mental health problem, all the way from Keizer report to hyperbolic blogs like Zerohedge.
https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2019/02/china-continues-to-prop-up-its.html
https://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2017/04/28/the-art-of-chinese-bank-fraud/
http://thediplomat.com/2013/12/chinas-shadow-currency/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-26/meanwhile-china-cow-collateralzed-stock-buybacks and the eventual crash http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-24/chinas-largest-dairy-operator-suddenly-crashes-85-record-low-muddy-waters-says-worth
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-05/chinese-credit-bubble-full-frontal
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/five-years-great-financial-crisis-no-growth-no-deleveraging
China 2
https://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2019/02/china-continues-to-prop-up-its.html
https://econimica.blogspot.com/2018/10/chinas-imminent-implosion-charts-of-day.html
https://econimica.blogspot.com/2019/07/how-this-plays-out-deceleration_39.html
https://econimica.blogspot.com/2019/02/census-bureau-treasury-eia-detail.html
demographics
https://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2017/07/demographics-central-bankers-nightmare.html
AI effects on society
https://econimica.blogspot.co.za/2017/01/how-america-recovered-from-great.html Kennedy school
stuff.co.nz
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/92133145/china-debt-rising-at-alarming-pace--bank-official
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/84477678/fear-that-china-debt-bubble-will-burst
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/73954976/Five-myths-about-the-Chinese-economy
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/88105605/chinas-economic-growth-could-slow-to-65-pct-in-2017
conflictsforum
http://www.conflictsforum.org/2017/what-is-this-crisis-of-modernity/
Stratfor intelligence
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwnPgscg0vU CIA agent Friedman on chances for global war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_cPG4sPKdc mauldin economics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Voqht3i3xtg intermarium this increased German hostility to the United States and to Poland. Germany had agreed to impose sanctions on Russia, but since Berlin did not want a significant confrontation with Russia, let alone a war, they were fairly inconsequential. Poland and the United States seemed far more prepared for conflict than Germany could afford to be. This was the foundation of the U.S.-Polish relationship. The Americans and the Poles both wanted an active containment of Russia. Germany wanted an accommodation. German hostility toward the U.S. and Poland was rooted in this, as was U.S. and Polish distrust of Germany.
wikileaks
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-25/assange-outlines-six-reasons-why-democratic-party-doomed Agent Assange on Democrats. archive backup https://archive.is/HhTCn
http://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1spvr6n archive(https://archive.is/LjAGo) proposes the democrat base breaks away into a separate party. The US isn't a multiparty democracy but a constitutional republic. Such an event, together with Jill Stein's Greenpeace would forever keep the presidency republican. It should be obvious that Assange is a CIA troll, the democrats know this and are hopping mad but wouldn't dare to implicate the CIA.
Nancy Pelosi is fuming that she was played for the fool by the CIA: she drank from a poisoned chalice. Gulping down all sorts of secret information was a ruse, now the Democrats can't ever implicate the CIA in electing Trump.
Zeihan
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MIdUSqsz0Io Peter Zeihan At IdeaFestival 2014, Geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan provides deep insight and context to the rapidly changing global scene and its potential impact on international business, finance and the US. By dissecting global demographic, cultural, political and economic trends, Zeihan paints a fascinating picture of what the interconnected geopolitical landscape could look like in the not too distant future.
IQ
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-10/world-faces-uphill-battle-average-iq-just-82 Lists the average IQ per country. archive https://archive.is/F31dY
OIL
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/tverberg-why-great-reset-based-green-energy-isnt-possible 1] The economy isn’t really like a computer that can be switched on and off; it is more comparable to a human body that is dead, once it is switched off.
https://web.archive.org/web/20190905001057/https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-09-03/debunking-lower-oil-supply-will-raise-prices-narrative The basic issue is that the economy is nterconnected, because energy is required for every activity that is considered part of GDP. Energy is required for any kind of heat or any kind of movement. Energy is even required for electricity. Without energy from the sun, food can’t grow; without supplemental energy of some kind (such as using electricity to heat an electric stove or burning animal dung or sticks), it becomes impossible to cook food or smelt metals.
news outlets
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2019/01/03/ret_col_macgregor_us_doesnt_win_wars_anymore.html
links
oil-about-benjamin-oil-hits-3-year-high-bofa-now-sees-spike-100 And while BofA's forecast may seem a little extreme, others expect even higher prices. David Tawil, president of Maglan Capital, told Fox Business last week that “incredible demand,” inflation, and shareholder pressure on oil supermajors to drastically cut emissions could lead to an oil crisis within three years, with very high oil and gasoline prices. Oil prices are set to rise “consistently and considerably now into the end of the year,” Tawil said.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-28/great-transformation-robots-will-displace-20-million-jobs-2030 robots will displace millions by 2030, UBI is needed.
https://www.globalresearch.ca/turkmenistan-secret-u-s-base-for-afghanistan-iraq-iran-campaigns/20411
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUb-ua-LxOZ1d6WhThgMGRA Mauldin economics, biotech